Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Escorpiones Belén vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
2 – 0
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
1/28/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Escorpiones Belén48%
×Draw22%
Marineros de Puntarenas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.98
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.53

Escorpiones Belén creates 29% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 37 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
70%
Escorpiones Belén or Marineros de Puntarenas
78%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
52%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
27%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
86%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
59%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
31%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
78%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
45%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
62%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.98

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
48%
level
22%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
30%

Escorpiones Belén at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escorpiones Belén 2–0 Marineros de Puntarenas

Escorpiones Belén beat Marineros de Puntarenas 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.