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Escorpiones Belén vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
10/8/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Escorpiones Belén46%
×Draw23%
Limón Black Star31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.79
Limón Black Star
1.43

Escorpiones Belén creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 36 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
69%
Escorpiones Belén or Limón Black Star
77%
Draw or Limón Black Star
54%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
25%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
83%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
53%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
26%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
76%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
42%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
60%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
46%
level
23%
Limón Black Star scores more
31%

Escorpiones Belén at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs Limón Black Star

Limón Black Star beat Escorpiones Belén 3-2 in Liga de Ascenso on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.