Escorpiones Belén 3–2 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Escorpiones Belén

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Futbol Consultants Moravia

10/15/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén53%

×Draw22%

Futbol Consultants Moravia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchFutbol Consultants Moravia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.35

Escorpiones Belén

2.01

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.35

Escorpiones Belén creates 49% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 124 away

2.37

creates per match

1.18

1.52

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.18

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

74%

Escorpiones Belén or Futbol Consultants Moravia

78%

Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia

47%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

31%

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

87%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

59%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

32%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

74%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

39%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

67%

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.01

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

53%

level

22%

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

26%

Escorpiones Belén at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff