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Escorpiones Belén vs CS Uruguay — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
3/26/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén53%
×Draw21%
CS Uruguay26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
2.08
CS Uruguay
1.42

Escorpiones Belén creates 46% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 124 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
CS Uruguay
1.31

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
CS Uruguay
1.78

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

CS Uruguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
74%
Escorpiones Belén or CS Uruguay
79%
Draw or CS Uruguay
47%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
31%
CS Uruguay wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
87%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
61%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
34%
CS Uruguay 1+ goals
76%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
41%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
67%
CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

CS Uruguay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + CS Uruguay defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.08

CS Uruguay attack 1.31 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
53%
level
21%
CS Uruguay scores more
26%

Escorpiones Belén at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs CS Uruguay

Escorpiones Belén beat CS Uruguay 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 26, 2026.