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Escorpiones Belén vs ADR Jicaral — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belénadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
11/24/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsPolideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén44%
×Draw23%
ADR Jicaral32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.72
ADR Jicaral
1.43

Escorpiones Belén creates 20% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 96 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
ADR Jicaral
1.34

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
ADR Jicaral
1.07

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

ADR Jicaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
68%
Escorpiones Belén or ADR Jicaral
77%
Draw or ADR Jicaral
56%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
23%
ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
82%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
51%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
25%
ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
76%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
42%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
58%
ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
44%
level
23%
ADR Jicaral scores more
32%

Escorpiones Belén at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escorpiones Belén 2–1 ADR Jicaral

Escorpiones Belén beat ADR Jicaral 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.