Escorpiones Belén 1–0 AD Carmelita: Result & Stats

Escorpiones Belén

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AD Carmelita

1/19/2026

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén50%

×Draw22%

AD Carmelita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchAD Carmelita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.42

Escorpiones Belén

1.96

AD Carmelita

1.42

Escorpiones Belén creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 104 away

2.37

creates per match

1.31

1.52

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

AD Carmelita

1.31

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

AD Carmelita

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

AD Carmelita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

72%

Escorpiones Belén or AD Carmelita

78%

Draw or AD Carmelita

50%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

28%

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

86%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

58%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

31%

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

76%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

41%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

64%

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

50%

level

22%

AD Carmelita scores more

28%

Escorpiones Belén at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff