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Escola Varsovia U18 vs SMS Łódź U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Escola Varsovia U18
Escola Varsovia U18
FT
2 – 1
SMS Łódź U18
SMS Łódź U18
3/20/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Escola Varsovia U1844%
×Draw23%
SMS Łódź U1833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escola Varsovia U18
1.82
SMS Łódź U18
1.56

Escola Varsovia U18 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

Escola Varsovia U18
1.61
SMS Łódź U18
1.50

allows per match

Escola Varsovia U18
1.61
SMS Łódź U18
2.03

finishing

Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par
SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escola Varsovia U18 ↓

SMS Łódź U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Escola Varsovia U18 or draw
67%
Escola Varsovia U18 or SMS Łódź U18
77%
Draw or SMS Łódź U18
56%

Winning margin

Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+
24%
SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals
84%
Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals
54%
Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals
27%
SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals
79%
SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals
46%
SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)
57%
SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escola Varsovia U18 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

SMS Łódź U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.61 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.82

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.50 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Escola Varsovia U18 scores more
44%
level
23%
SMS Łódź U18 scores more
33%

Escola Varsovia U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Escola Varsovia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Escola Varsovia U18 2–1 SMS Łódź U18

Escola Varsovia U18 beat SMS Łódź U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on March 20, 2021.