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Escobedo vs Vimenor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vimenor
Vimenor
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Escobedo51%
×Draw24%
Vimenor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
1.70
Vimenor
1.13

Escobedo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Vimenor
1.27

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Vimenor
1.35

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Vimenor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Vimenor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
75%
Escobedo or Vimenor
76%
Draw or Vimenor
49%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
27%
Vimenor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
82%
Escobedo 2+ goals
51%
Escobedo 3+ goals
24%
Vimenor 1+ goals
68%
Vimenor 2+ goals
31%
Vimenor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
67%
Vimenor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Vimenor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Vimenor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vimenor attack 1.27 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Escobedo scores more
51%
level
24%
Vimenor scores more
25%

Escobedo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Escobedo 2–0 Vimenor

Escobedo beat Vimenor 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.