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Escobedo vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Torina
Torina
11/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Escobedo52%
×Draw25%
Torina24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
1.63
Torina
1.02

Escobedo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Torina
1.21

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
76%
Escobedo or Torina
75%
Draw or Torina
48%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
27%
Torina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
80%
Escobedo 2+ goals
48%
Escobedo 3+ goals
22%
Torina 1+ goals
64%
Torina 2+ goals
27%
Torina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
68%
Torina (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.63

Torina attack 1.05 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Escobedo scores more
52%
level
25%
Torina scores more
24%

Escobedo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escobedo vs Torina

Escobedo beat Torina 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.