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Escobedo vs Selaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Selaya
Selaya
1/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Escobedo63%
×Draw21%
Selaya16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
1.96
Selaya
0.86

Escobedo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 60 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Selaya
0.73

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Selaya
1.87

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Selaya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Selaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
84%
Escobedo or Selaya
79%
Draw or Selaya
37%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
38%
Selaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
86%
Escobedo 2+ goals
58%
Escobedo 3+ goals
31%
Selaya 1+ goals
58%
Selaya 2+ goals
21%
Selaya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
80%
Selaya (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Selaya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Selaya defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Selaya attack 0.73 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Escobedo scores more
63%
level
21%
Selaya scores more
16%

Escobedo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escobedo vs Selaya

Escobedo beat Selaya 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.