Escobedo 3–2 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Escobedo

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Guarnizo

11/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Escobedo49%

×Draw25%

Guarnizo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscobedoExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Escobedo

1.63

Guarnizo

1.11

Escobedo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 111 away

2.05

creates per match

1.23

0.99

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Escobedo

2.05

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Escobedo

0.99

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Guarnizo →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw

74%

Escobedo or Guarnizo

75%

Draw or Guarnizo

51%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+

26%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals

80%

Escobedo 2+ goals

48%

Escobedo 3+ goals

22%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

67%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

30%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)

66%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Escobedo scores more

49%

level

25%

Guarnizo scores more

26%

Escobedo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff