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Escobedo vs Gama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Gama
Gama
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Escobedo61%
×Draw21%
Gama18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
2.04
Gama
0.99

Escobedo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Gama
1.00

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Gama
2.03

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
82%
Escobedo or Gama
79%
Draw or Gama
39%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
38%
Gama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
87%
Escobedo 2+ goals
60%
Escobedo 3+ goals
33%
Gama 1+ goals
63%
Gama 2+ goals
26%
Gama 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
78%
Gama (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Gama defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.04

Gama attack 1.00 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Escobedo scores more
61%
level
21%
Gama scores more
18%

Escobedo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Escobedo 7–0 Gama

Escobedo beat Gama 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.