Escobedo 4–2 Barquereño: Result & Stats

Escobedo

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Barquereño

9/28/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Escobedo60%

×Draw22%

Barquereño19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscobedoExpected goals in this matchBarquereño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.00

Escobedo

1.97

Barquereño

1.00

Escobedo creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 62 away

2.05

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Escobedo

2.05

Barquereño

1.02

allows per match

Escobedo

0.99

Barquereño

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par

Barquereño+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Barquereño →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw

81%

Escobedo or Barquereño

78%

Draw or Barquereño

40%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+

36%

Barquereño wins by 2+

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals

86%

Escobedo 2+ goals

58%

Escobedo 3+ goals

31%

Barquereño 1+ goals

63%

Barquereño 2+ goals

26%

Barquereño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)

76%

Barquereño (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Barquereño away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Barquereño defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.97

Barquereño attack 1.02 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Escobedo scores more

60%

level

22%

Barquereño scores more

19%

Escobedo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff