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Escobedo vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Escobedo61%
×Draw22%
Atlético Mineros18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
1.96
Atlético Mineros
0.95

Escobedo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 34 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
82%
Escobedo or Atlético Mineros
78%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
39%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
86%
Escobedo 2+ goals
58%
Escobedo 3+ goals
31%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.96

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Escobedo scores more
61%
level
22%
Atlético Mineros scores more
18%

Escobedo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Escobedo 2–0 Atlético Mineros

Escobedo beat Atlético Mineros 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.