Escobedo 2–2 Atlético Albericia: Result & Stats

Escobedo

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Albericia

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Escobedo48%

×Draw24%

Atlético Albericia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscobedoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Albericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.28

Escobedo

1.74

Atlético Albericia

1.28

Escobedo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

2.05

creates per match

1.57

0.99

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Escobedo

2.05

Atlético Albericia

1.57

allows per match

Escobedo

0.99

Atlético Albericia

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Atlético Albericia →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw

72%

Escobedo or Atlético Albericia

76%

Draw or Atlético Albericia

52%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+

26%

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals

82%

Escobedo 2+ goals

52%

Escobedo 3+ goals

25%

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Albericia 2+ goals

37%

Atlético Albericia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)

63%

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.74

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Escobedo scores more

48%

level

24%

Atlético Albericia scores more

28%

Escobedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Escobedo 2–2 Atlético Albericia

Escobedo and Atlético Albericia drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.

Escobedo vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Escobedo 2–2 Atlético Albericia