Eschen / Mauren 1–1 Wettswil-Bonstetten

Eschen / Mauren

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wettswil-Bonstetten

5/18/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Sportpark Eschen/Mauren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Eschen / Mauren31%

×Draw25%

Wettswil-Bonstetten43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eschen / MaurenExpected goals in this matchWettswil-Bonstetten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.49

Eschen / Mauren

1.23

Wettswil-Bonstetten

1.49

Wettswil-Bonstetten creates 21% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.45

creates per match

1.62

1.36

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Eschen / Mauren

1.45

Wettswil-Bonstetten

1.62

allows per match

Eschen / Mauren

1.36

Wettswil-Bonstetten

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eschen / Mauren+0.00on par

Wettswil-Bonstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eschen / Mauren ↓

Wettswil-Bonstetten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eschen / Mauren or draw

57%

Eschen / Mauren or Wettswil-Bonstetten

75%

Draw or Wettswil-Bonstetten

69%

Winning margin

Eschen / Mauren wins by 2+

13%

Wettswil-Bonstetten wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Eschen / Mauren 1+ goals

71%

Eschen / Mauren 2+ goals

35%

Eschen / Mauren 3+ goals

13%

Wettswil-Bonstetten 1+ goals

77%

Wettswil-Bonstetten 2+ goals

44%

Wettswil-Bonstetten 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Eschen / Mauren (draw refunded)

42%

Wettswil-Bonstetten (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eschen / Mauren at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Wettswil-Bonstetten away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eschen / Mauren attack 1.45 + Wettswil-Bonstetten defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wettswil-Bonstetten attack 1.62 + Eschen / Mauren defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eschen / Mauren scores more

31%

level

25%

Wettswil-Bonstetten scores more

43%

Wettswil-Bonstetten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wettswil-Bonstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff