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Eschen / Mauren vs Uzwil — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Eschen / Mauren
Eschen / Mauren
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Uzwil
Uzwil
9/11/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Sportpark Eschen/Mauren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eschen / Mauren51%
×Draw22%
Uzwil27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eschen / Mauren
1.94
Uzwil
1.36

Eschen / Mauren creates 43% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 58 away

creates per match

Eschen / Mauren
1.45
Uzwil
1.36

allows per match

Eschen / Mauren
1.36
Uzwil
2.43

finishing

Eschen / Mauren+0.00on par
Uzwil+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eschen / Mauren ↓

Uzwil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eschen / Mauren or draw
73%
Eschen / Mauren or Uzwil
78%
Draw or Uzwil
49%

Winning margin

Eschen / Mauren wins by 2+
29%
Uzwil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eschen / Mauren 1+ goals
86%
Eschen / Mauren 2+ goals
58%
Eschen / Mauren 3+ goals
30%
Uzwil 1+ goals
74%
Uzwil 2+ goals
39%
Uzwil 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eschen / Mauren (draw refunded)
65%
Uzwil (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eschen / Mauren at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Uzwil away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.43 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eschen / Mauren attack 1.45 + Uzwil defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.94

Uzwil attack 1.36 + Eschen / Mauren defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eschen / Mauren scores more
51%
level
22%
Uzwil scores more
27%

Eschen / Mauren at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eschen / Mauren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Eschen / Mauren 1–3 Uzwil

Uzwil beat Eschen / Mauren 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Eschen/Mauren in Eschen.