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Escazucena vs Municipal Liberia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
A. Fernandez 81'
R. Montiel 63'
J. Arguedas 19'
R. Chirino 13'
J. Quedo 86'
E. Zuniga 62'
J. Rosales 35'
2/23/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Escazucena45%
×Draw25%
Municipal Liberia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.53
Municipal Liberia
1.21

Escazucena creates 26% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Municipal Liberia
1.35

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Municipal Liberia
1.55

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Municipal Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
70%
Escazucena or Municipal Liberia
75%
Draw or Municipal Liberia
55%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
22%
Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
78%
Escazucena 2+ goals
45%
Escazucena 3+ goals
20%
Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
70%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
34%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
60%
Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Escazucena scores more
45%
level
25%
Municipal Liberia scores more
30%

Escazucena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
R. Chirino
19'
J. Arguedas
35'
J. Rosales
62'
E. Zuniga
63'
R. Montiel
81'
A. Fernandez
86'
J. Quedo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escazucena 4–3 Municipal Liberia

Escazucena beat Municipal Liberia 4-3 in Liga de Ascenso on February 23, 2022.

Goals: R. Chirino (13'), J. Arguedas (19'), J. Rosales (35'), E. Zuniga (62'), R. Montiel (63'), A. Fernandez (81'), J. Quedo (86').

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.