Escazucena 0–1 Marineros de Puntarenas

Escazucena

FT

0 – 1

Marineros de Puntarenas

8/9/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 1Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Escazucena43%

×Draw25%

Marineros de Puntarenas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscazucenaExpected goals in this matchMarineros de Puntarenas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.30

Escazucena

1.55

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.30

Escazucena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 37 away

1.51

creates per match

1.54

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Escazucena

1.51

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.54

allows per match

Escazucena

1.06

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw

68%

Escazucena or Marineros de Puntarenas

75%

Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas

57%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+

22%

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals

79%

Escazucena 2+ goals

46%

Escazucena 3+ goals

20%

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals

73%

Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals

37%

Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)

57%

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Escazucena scores more

43%

level

25%

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more

32%

Escazucena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff