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Escazucena vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Limon FC
Limon FC
D. Diaz 57'
B. Astua 44'
D. Fernandez 11'
R. Smith 90+7'
E. Monguio 72'
D. Barthley 21'
8/19/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Escazucena36%
×Draw26%
Limon FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.35
Limon FC
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 16 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
62%
Escazucena or Limon FC
74%
Draw or Limon FC
64%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
16%
Limon FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
74%
Escazucena 2+ goals
39%
Escazucena 3+ goals
15%
Limon FC 1+ goals
75%
Limon FC 2+ goals
40%
Limon FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
49%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Escazucena scores more
36%
level
26%
Limon FC scores more
38%

Limon FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Fernandez
21'
D. Barthley
44'
B. Astua
57'
D. Diaz
72'
E. Monguio
88'
A. Chevez Alanis
90+7'
R. Smith

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escazucena 3–3 Limon FC

Escazucena and Limon FC drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on August 19, 2022.

Goals: D. Fernandez (11'), D. Barthley (21'), B. Astua (44'), D. Diaz (57'), E. Monguio (72'), R. Smith (90+7').

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.