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Escazucena vs CS Uruguay — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
E. Barahona 70', 67'
J. Hansen 63'
R. Lopez 52', 25'
J. Montero 35'
8/10/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Escazucena48%
×Draw24%
CS Uruguay28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.65
CS Uruguay
1.19

Escazucena creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 124 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
CS Uruguay
1.31

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
CS Uruguay
1.78

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

CS Uruguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
72%
Escazucena or CS Uruguay
76%
Draw or CS Uruguay
52%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
25%
CS Uruguay wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
81%
Escazucena 2+ goals
49%
Escazucena 3+ goals
23%
CS Uruguay 1+ goals
70%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
33%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
64%
CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

CS Uruguay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + CS Uruguay defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

CS Uruguay attack 1.31 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Escazucena scores more
48%
level
24%
CS Uruguay scores more
28%

Escazucena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
R. Lopez
35'
J. Montero
52'
R. Lopez
63'
J. Hansen
67'
E. Barahona
70'
E. Barahona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escazucena vs CS Uruguay

Escazucena and CS Uruguay drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on August 10, 2022.

Goals: R. Lopez (25', 52'), J. Montero (35'), J. Hansen (63'), E. Barahona (67', 70').

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.