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Escazucena vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
8/5/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Escazucena50%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.59
Aserri FC
1.06

Escazucena creates 50% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 105 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
75%
Escazucena or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
50%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
26%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
80%
Escazucena 2+ goals
47%
Escazucena 3+ goals
21%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
65%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
29%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
66%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Escazucena scores more
50%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
25%

Escazucena at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escazucena 0–3 Aserri FC

Aserri FC beat Escazucena 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.