Esbjerg 1–2 Odense: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Esbjerg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Odense

E. Holten 59'

L. Kjerrumgaard 90+7'

L. Deedson 17'

7/20/2024

1. Division · Round 1Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Esbjerg25%

×Draw23%

Odense52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchOdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.83

Esbjerg

1.19

Odense

1.83

Odense creates 54% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

1.45

creates per match

2.31

1.34

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Esbjerg

1.45

Odense

2.31

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.34

Odense

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Odense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Odense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

48%

Esbjerg or Odense

77%

Draw or Odense

75%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

10%

Odense wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

70%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

33%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

12%

Odense 1+ goals

84%

Odense 2+ goals

54%

Odense 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

32%

Odense (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Odense away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.45 + Odense defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Odense attack 2.31 + Esbjerg defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Esbjerg scores more

25%

level

23%

Odense scores more

52%

Odense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. Deedson↳ L. Kjerrumgaard

30'

58'

58'

58'

59'

E. Holten↳ J. Mortensen

65'

M. Maden← L. From

65'

B. Hvidt← N. Strunck

80'

P. Tjørnelund← J. Mortensen

80'

E. Andersen← A. Lausen

82'

T. Slotsager

85'

T. Freriks← E. Holten

90+7'

L. Kjerrumgaard↳ L. Deedson

Esbjerg

Odense

16

Myhra

4

▼

20

2

28

6

8

18

▼

Ejdum

10

⚽A

Deedson

17

⚽A

Kjerrumga

40

▼

Martin

16

Kristense

15

Stagaard

2

A

▼

Mortensen

21

Montano

5

Troelsen

19

▼

Strunck

10

Bourhane

12

▼

Lausen

11

⚽

▼

Holten

9

Sørensen

7

▼

From

Manager: L. Sørensen

65'▲M. Maden←▼L. From

65'▲B. Hvidt←▼N. Strunck

80'▲P. Tjørnelund←▼J. Mortensen

80'▲E. Andersen←▼A. Lausen

85'▲T. Freriks←▼E. Holten

Esbjerg substitutes

8Maden22Hvidt4Tjørnelund39Andersen14Freriks34Jørgensen26Flaskager6Lauridsen3Svendsen

Manager: S. Krogh

58'▲M. Jensen←▼W. Martin

58'▲J. Gomez←▼B. Paulsen

58'▲G. Grubbe←▼M. Ejdum

Odense substitutes

11Jensen29Gomez14Grubbe41Lassen1Hansen21Juul-Sandberg15McCoy13Askou26Hansborg-Sørensen

1. Division: Esbjerg 1–2 Odense

Odense beat Esbjerg 2-1 in 1. Division on July 20, 2024.

Goals: L. Deedson (17'), E. Holten (59'), L. Kjerrumgaard (90+7').

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.

Esbjerg vs Odense — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Esbjerg 1–2 Odense