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Esbjerg vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
HIK
HIK
9/11/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg63%
×Draw19%
HIK17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
2.27
HIK
1.10

Esbjerg creates 106% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 82 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
HIK
1.11

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
HIK
1.83

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
83%
Esbjerg or HIK
81%
Draw or HIK
37%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
41%
HIK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
90%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
66%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
39%
HIK 1+ goals
67%
HIK 2+ goals
30%
HIK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
79%
HIK (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

HIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + HIK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

HIK attack 1.11 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Esbjerg scores more
63%
level
19%
HIK scores more
17%

Esbjerg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esbjerg vs HIK

Esbjerg beat HIK 4-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.