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Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
E. Dall 71'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Esbjerg45%
×Draw23%
FC Fredericia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
1.73
FC Fredericia
1.41

Esbjerg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
1.85
FC Fredericia
1.27

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.54
FC Fredericia
1.60

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

FC Fredericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
69%
Esbjerg or FC Fredericia
77%
Draw or FC Fredericia
55%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
24%
FC Fredericia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
82%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
52%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
25%
FC Fredericia 1+ goals
76%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
41%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
59%
FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.85 + FC Fredericia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Esbjerg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esbjerg scores more
45%
level
23%
FC Fredericia scores more
31%

Esbjerg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
E. Dall
Esbjerg
FC
Sancheev Manoharan
Manager: Sancheev Manoharan
Michael Hansen
Manager: Michael Hansen

Friendlies Clubs: Esbjerg 0–1 FC Fredericia

FC Fredericia beat Esbjerg 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: E. Dall (71').