Esan Pattaya 1–4 Rasi Salai United: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Rasi Salai United

10/26/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 10Nongprue Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Esan Pattaya30%

×Draw27%

Rasi Salai United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchRasi Salai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.40

Esan Pattaya

1.13

Rasi Salai United

1.40

Rasi Salai United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

1.59

1.20

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Rasi Salai United

1.59

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Rasi Salai United

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Rasi Salai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Rasi Salai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

57%

Esan Pattaya or Rasi Salai United

73%

Draw or Rasi Salai United

70%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

12%

Rasi Salai United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

68%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

31%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

11%

Rasi Salai United 1+ goals

75%

Rasi Salai United 2+ goals

41%

Rasi Salai United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

41%

Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Rasi Salai United away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Rasi Salai United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rasi Salai United attack 1.59 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

30%

level

27%

Rasi Salai United scores more

43%

Rasi Salai United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff