Esan Pattaya 1–0 Police Tero: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Police Tero

1/26/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 21Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya42%

×Draw25%

Police Tero33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchPolice Tero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Esan Pattaya

1.48

Police Tero

1.29

Esan Pattaya creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 52 away

1.32

creates per match

1.38

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Police Tero

1.38

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Police Tero

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Police Tero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

67%

Esan Pattaya or Police Tero

75%

Draw or Police Tero

58%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

20%

Police Tero wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

77%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

43%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

19%

Police Tero 1+ goals

72%

Police Tero 2+ goals

37%

Police Tero 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

56%

Police Tero (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Police Tero away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Police Tero defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Police Tero attack 1.38 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

42%

level

25%

Police Tero scores more

33%

Esan Pattaya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff