Esan Pattaya 2–0 Pattani: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pattani

2/5/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 22Nongprue Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esan Pattaya39%

×Draw26%

Pattani35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchPattani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.26

Esan Pattaya

1.35

Pattani

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Pattani

1.32

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Pattani

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Pattani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Pattani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

65%

Esan Pattaya or Pattani

74%

Draw or Pattani

61%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

18%

Pattani wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

74%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

39%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

15%

Pattani 1+ goals

72%

Pattani 2+ goals

36%

Pattani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

53%

Pattani (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Pattani away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Pattani defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pattani attack 1.32 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

39%

level

26%

Pattani scores more

35%

Esan Pattaya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff