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Esan Pattaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
10/8/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Esan Pattaya33%
×Draw26%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.25
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.42

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.65

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.18

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
59%
Esan Pattaya or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
74%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
67%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
14%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
71%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
36%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
13%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
76%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
41%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
45%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
33%
level
26%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
41%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esan Pattaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Esan Pattaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Nong Prue Stadium in Pattaya.