Esan Pattaya 1–1 Kanchanaburi: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kanchanaburi

9/23/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 6Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Esan Pattaya40%

×Draw26%

Kanchanaburi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchKanchanaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.31

Esan Pattaya

1.44

Kanchanaburi

1.31

Esan Pattaya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 36 away

1.32

creates per match

1.42

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Kanchanaburi

1.42

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Kanchanaburi

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Kanchanaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

66%

Esan Pattaya or Kanchanaburi

74%

Draw or Kanchanaburi

60%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

19%

Kanchanaburi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

76%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

42%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

18%

Kanchanaburi 1+ goals

73%

Kanchanaburi 2+ goals

38%

Kanchanaburi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

54%

Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Kanchanaburi away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kanchanaburi attack 1.42 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

40%

level

26%

Kanchanaburi scores more

34%

Esan Pattaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff