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Esan Pattaya vs Chanthaburi — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
4/20/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya45%
×Draw26%
Chanthaburi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.47
Chanthaburi
1.14

Esan Pattaya creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 50 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Chanthaburi
1.08

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Chanthaburi
1.62

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Chanthaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
71%
Esan Pattaya or Chanthaburi
74%
Draw or Chanthaburi
55%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
22%
Chanthaburi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
77%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
43%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
18%
Chanthaburi 1+ goals
68%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
32%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
60%
Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Chanthaburi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Chanthaburi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chanthaburi attack 1.08 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
45%
level
26%
Chanthaburi scores more
29%

Esan Pattaya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esan Pattaya vs Chanthaburi

Esan Pattaya beat Chanthaburi 3-1 in Thai League 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Nong Prue Stadium in Pattaya.