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Esan Pattaya vs Cha Choeng Sao — FA Cup 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
2 – 0
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
9/29/2021FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying RoundNong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esan Pattaya65%
×Draw19%
Cha Choeng Sao16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
2.25
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

Esan Pattaya creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.67
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.00
Cha Choeng Sao
2.83

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
84%
Esan Pattaya or Cha Choeng Sao
81%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
35%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
42%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
89%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
65%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
39%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
63%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
26%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
81%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.67 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.00 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
65%
level
19%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
16%

Esan Pattaya at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Esan Pattaya 2–0 Cha Choeng Sao

Esan Pattaya beat Cha Choeng Sao 2-0 in FA Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Nong Prue Stadium in Pattaya.