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Esae vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
PST
15:00
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
4/19/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 23Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae54%
×Draw28%
UPI-ONM18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.39
UPI-ONM
0.67

Esae creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 90 away

creates per match

Esae
1.18
UPI-ONM
0.73

allows per match

Esae
0.61
UPI-ONM
1.59

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esae or draw
82%
Esae or UPI-ONM
72%
Draw or UPI-ONM
46%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
27%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
75%
Esae 2+ goals
40%
Esae 3+ goals
16%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
49%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
15%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
75%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.59 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + UPI-ONM defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Esae scores more
54%
level
28%
UPI-ONM scores more
18%

Esae at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esae vs UPI-ONM — Match Preview

Esae face UPI-ONM on April 19, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Esae host UPI-ONM at Stade Cotonou II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.