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Esae vs Tonnerre — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
1 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/6/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 20Stade de Sakété (Sakété)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esae46%
×Draw32%
Tonnerre22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.13
Tonnerre
0.69

Esae creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 89 away

creates per match

Esae
1.19
Tonnerre
0.78

allows per match

Esae
0.59
Tonnerre
1.07

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw
78%
Esae or Tonnerre
68%
Draw or Tonnerre
54%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
20%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
68%
Esae 2+ goals
31%
Esae 3+ goals
11%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
50%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
15%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
67%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.19 + Tonnerre defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tonnerre attack 0.78 + Esae defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esae scores more
46%
level
32%
Tonnerre scores more
22%

Esae at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esae vs Tonnerre

Esae beat Tonnerre 1-0 in Championnat National on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Sakété (Sakété).