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Esae vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
PST
15:00
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
3/21/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 20Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae51%
×Draw31%
Réal Sport17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.17
Réal Sport
0.54

Esae creates 117% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 82 away

creates per match

Esae
1.18
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

Esae
0.61
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esae or draw
83%
Esae or Réal Sport
69%
Draw or Réal Sport
49%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
23%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
69%
Esae 2+ goals
33%
Esae 3+ goals
11%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
42%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
10%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
75%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Esae scores more
51%
level
31%
Réal Sport scores more
17%

Esae at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esae vs Réal Sport — Match Preview

Esae face Réal Sport on March 21, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Esae host Réal Sport at Stade Cotonou II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.