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Esae vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
3 – 1
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
2/17/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Esae44%
×Draw31%
Espoir Savalou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.16
Espoir Savalou
0.79

Esae creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 101 away

creates per match

Esae
1.29
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Esae
0.68
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esae or draw
75%
Esae or Espoir Savalou
69%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
56%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
19%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
69%
Esae 2+ goals
32%
Esae 3+ goals
11%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
55%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
19%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
64%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.29 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Esae defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Esae scores more
44%
level
31%
Espoir Savalou scores more
25%

Esae at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Esae 3–1 Espoir Savalou

Esae beat Espoir Savalou 3-1 in Championnat National on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.