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Esae vs Energie — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
0 – 0
Energie
Energie
4/11/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 21Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Esae50%
×Draw30%
Energie20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.23
Energie
0.67

Esae creates 84% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 58 away

creates per match

Esae
1.29
Energie
0.66

allows per match

Esae
0.68
Energie
1.17

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Energie+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Energie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw
80%
Esae or Energie
70%
Draw or Energie
50%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
23%
Energie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
71%
Esae 2+ goals
35%
Esae 3+ goals
13%
Energie 1+ goals
49%
Energie 2+ goals
15%
Energie 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
71%
Energie (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Energie away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.17 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.29 + Energie defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Energie attack 0.66 + Esae defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esae scores more
50%
level
30%
Energie scores more
20%

Esae at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Esae 0–0 Energie

Esae and Energie drew 0-0 in Championnat National on April 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou).