Esae 1–2 Béké Bembèrèkè: Result & Stats

Esae

FT

1 – 2

Béké Bembèrèkè

6/13/2021

Championnat National · Championship Round - 14Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae45%

×Draw31%

Béké Bembèrèkè24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsaeExpected goals in this matchBéké Bembèrèkè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.76

Esae

1.17

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.76

Esae creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 98 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

0.61

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Esae

1.18

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.91

allows per match

Esae

0.61

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esae+0.00on par

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Esae or draw

76%

Esae or Béké Bembèrèkè

69%

Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè

55%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+

20%

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals

69%

Esae 2+ goals

33%

Esae 3+ goals

11%

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals

53%

Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals

18%

Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)

66%

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esae scores more

45%

level

31%

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more

24%

Esae at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff