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Esae vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
PST
15:00
Ayema
Ayema
5/3/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 25Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Esae42%
×Draw32%
Ayema26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.06
Ayema
0.77

Esae creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 120 away

creates per match

Esae
1.32
Ayema
0.89

allows per match

Esae
0.64
Ayema
0.81

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw
74%
Esae or Ayema
68%
Draw or Ayema
58%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
17%
Ayema wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
65%
Esae 2+ goals
29%
Esae 3+ goals
9%
Ayema 1+ goals
54%
Ayema 2+ goals
18%
Ayema 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
62%
Ayema (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.32 + Ayema defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ayema attack 0.89 + Esae defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esae scores more
42%
level
32%
Ayema scores more
26%

Esae at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esae host Ayema

May 3, 2020: Esae take on Ayema in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esae host Ayema at Stade Cotonou II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.