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Ayema vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
FT
0 – 1
Esae
Esae
12/21/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 10Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ayema37%
×Draw30%
Esae33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.06
Esae
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.27
Esae
1.35

allows per match

Ayema
0.61
Esae
0.85

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
67%
Ayema or Esae
70%
Draw or Esae
63%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
15%
Esae wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
65%
Ayema 2+ goals
29%
Ayema 3+ goals
9%
Esae 1+ goals
62%
Esae 2+ goals
26%
Esae 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
53%
Esae (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Esae away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Esae defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.06

Esae attack 1.35 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ayema scores more
37%
level
30%
Esae scores more
33%

Ayema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayema vs Esae

Esae beat Ayema 1-0 in Championnat National on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété in Akpro-Missérété.