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Esae vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
1 – 0
ASVO
ASVO
12/21/2018Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade de Sakété (Sakété)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae41%
×Draw33%
ASVO26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.02
ASVO
0.74

Esae creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 115 away

creates per match

Esae
1.18
ASVO
0.87

allows per match

Esae
0.61
ASVO
0.86

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esae or draw
74%
Esae or ASVO
67%
Draw or ASVO
59%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
16%
ASVO wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
64%
Esae 2+ goals
27%
Esae 3+ goals
8%
ASVO 1+ goals
52%
ASVO 2+ goals
17%
ASVO 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
61%
ASVO (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.86 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + ASVO defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

ASVO attack 0.87 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Esae scores more
41%
level
33%
ASVO scores more
26%

Esae at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esae vs ASVO

Esae beat ASVO 1-0 in Championnat National on December 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Sakété (Sakété).