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Esae vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
1 – 0
ASOS
ASOS
5/5/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 6Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esae49%
×Draw29%
ASOS21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.27
ASOS
0.73

Esae creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Esae
1.19
ASOS
0.88

allows per match

Esae
0.59
ASOS
1.34

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esae or draw
79%
Esae or ASOS
71%
Draw or ASOS
51%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
23%
ASOS wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
72%
Esae 2+ goals
36%
Esae 3+ goals
14%
ASOS 1+ goals
52%
ASOS 2+ goals
17%
ASOS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
70%
ASOS (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.19 + ASOS defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

ASOS attack 0.88 + Esae defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Esae scores more
49%
level
29%
ASOS scores more
21%

Esae at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esae 1 – 0 ASOS

Esae beat ASOS 1-0 in Championnat National on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.