ES Zarzis 2–1 Stade Tunisien: Result & Stats

ES Zarzis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Tunisien

Z. Touati 87'

B. Othman 41'

J. Bessan 12'

2/11/2018

League #202 · Round 18Stade Jlidi (Zarzis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

ES Zarzis39%

×Draw32%

Stade Tunisien29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchStade Tunisien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.84

ES Zarzis

1.03

Stade Tunisien

0.84

ES Zarzis creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 63 away

1.08

creates per match

0.83

0.85

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

ES Zarzis

1.08

Stade Tunisien

0.83

allows per match

ES Zarzis

0.85

Stade Tunisien

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Stade Tunisien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

71%

ES Zarzis or Stade Tunisien

68%

Draw or Stade Tunisien

61%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

15%

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

64%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

28%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

9%

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

57%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

21%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

57%

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 59 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.08 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + ES Zarzis defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

39%

level

32%

Stade Tunisien scores more

29%

ES Zarzis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Bessan

41'

B. Othman

87'

Z. Touati

ES

Stade

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: R. Jeddi

Manager: N. Kouki

Match Recap: ES Zarzis vs Stade Tunisien

ES Zarzis beat Stade Tunisien 2-1 in League #202 on February 11, 2018.

Goals: J. Bessan (12'), B. Othman (41'), Z. Touati (87').

The match was played at Stade Jlidi (Zarzis).

ES Zarzis vs Stade Tunisien — League #202 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ES Zarzis vs Stade Tunisien