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ES Zarzis vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
5/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ES Zarzis69%
×Draw22%
Rogba Tataouine9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.76
Rogba Tataouine
0.46

ES Zarzis creates 283% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
2.03
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.35
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
91%
ES Zarzis or Rogba Tataouine
78%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
31%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
41%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
83%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
52%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
26%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
37%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
8%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
88%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
69%
level
22%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
9%

ES Zarzis at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: ES Zarzis 3–0 Rogba Tataouine

ES Zarzis beat Rogba Tataouine 3-0 in Ligue 2 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz in Zarzis.