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ES Zarzis vs Mohammedia — Ligue 2 2020

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
1 – 0
Mohammedia
Mohammedia
2/7/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Jlidi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ES Zarzis63%
×Draw25%
Mohammedia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.58
Mohammedia
0.52

ES Zarzis creates 204% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
2.03
Mohammedia
0.68

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.35
Mohammedia
1.14

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
Mohammedia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Mohammedia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
88%
ES Zarzis or Mohammedia
75%
Draw or Mohammedia
37%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
35%
Mohammedia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
79%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
47%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
21%
Mohammedia 1+ goals
41%
Mohammedia 2+ goals
10%
Mohammedia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
84%
Mohammedia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

Mohammedia away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + Mohammedia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mohammedia attack 0.68 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
63%
level
25%
Mohammedia scores more
12%

ES Zarzis at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: ES Zarzis 1–0 Mohammedia

ES Zarzis beat Mohammedia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jlidi in Zarzis.