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ES Zarzis vs Korba — Cup 2019

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzisadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Korba
Korba
3/22/2026CupCup · Round of 32Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ES Zarzis26%
×Draw28%
Korba46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
0.90
Korba
1.30

Korba creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
1.00
Korba
1.20

allows per match

ES Zarzis
1.40
Korba
0.80

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
Korba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Korba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
54%
ES Zarzis or Korba
72%
Draw or Korba
74%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
9%
Korba wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
59%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
23%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
6%
Korba 1+ goals
73%
Korba 2+ goals
37%
Korba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
36%
Korba (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Korba away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.00 + Korba defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Korba attack 1.20 + ES Zarzis defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
26%
level
28%
Korba scores more
46%

Korba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: ES Zarzis 0–0 Korba

ES Zarzis and Korba drew 0-0 in Cup on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium in Zarzis.