ES Zarzis 1–0 Jerba: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

ES Zarzis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jerba

A. Tangour 73' (pen)

2/17/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 16Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ES Zarzis66%

×Draw24%

Jerba10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchJerba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.47

ES Zarzis

1.63

Jerba

0.47

ES Zarzis creates 247% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

2.03

creates per match

0.60

0.35

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

ES Zarzis

2.03

Jerba

0.60

allows per match

ES Zarzis

0.35

Jerba

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Jerba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

90%

ES Zarzis or Jerba

76%

Draw or Jerba

34%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

37%

Jerba wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

80%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

48%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

22%

Jerba 1+ goals

37%

Jerba 2+ goals

8%

Jerba 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

87%

Jerba (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jerba attack 0.60 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

66%

level

24%

Jerba scores more

10%

ES Zarzis at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'

A. TangourPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff