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ES Zarzis vs CO Medenine — Ligue 2 2020

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
CANC
13:00
CO Medenine
CO Medenine
10/9/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ES Zarzis67%
×Draw23%
CO Medenine11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.71
CO Medenine
0.51

ES Zarzis creates 235% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
2.03
CO Medenine
0.67

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.35
CO Medenine
1.39

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
CO Medenine+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

CO Medenine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
89%
ES Zarzis or CO Medenine
77%
Draw or CO Medenine
33%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
39%
CO Medenine wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
82%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
51%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
24%
CO Medenine 1+ goals
40%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
9%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
86%
CO Medenine (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

CO Medenine away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + CO Medenine defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

CO Medenine attack 0.67 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
67%
level
23%
CO Medenine scores more
11%

ES Zarzis at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ES Zarzis face CO Medenine (Ligue 2)

Ligue 2 returns with ES Zarzis hosting CO Medenine. Match starts October 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.