ES Zarzis 1–2 Béni-Khalled: Result & Stats

ES Zarzis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Béni-Khalled

3/24/2012

League #202 · Round 12Stade Jlidi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ES Zarzis55%

×Draw24%

Béni-Khalled21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchBéni-Khalled

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.97

ES Zarzis

1.73

Béni-Khalled

0.97

ES Zarzis creates 78% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

0.69

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

ES Zarzis

1.38

Béni-Khalled

0.69

allows per match

ES Zarzis

1.25

Béni-Khalled

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Béni-Khalled+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Béni-Khalled →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

79%

ES Zarzis or Béni-Khalled

76%

Draw or Béni-Khalled

45%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

31%

Béni-Khalled wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

82%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

52%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

25%

Béni-Khalled 1+ goals

62%

Béni-Khalled 2+ goals

25%

Béni-Khalled 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

72%

Béni-Khalled (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Béni-Khalled away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.38 + Béni-Khalled defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Béni-Khalled attack 0.69 + ES Zarzis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

55%

level

24%

Béni-Khalled scores more

21%

ES Zarzis at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff