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ES Zarzis vs AS Rejiche — Ligue 2 2020

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AS Rejiche
AS Rejiche
12/9/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ES Zarzis72%
×Draw20%
AS Rejiche8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.85
AS Rejiche
0.42

ES Zarzis creates 340% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
2.03
AS Rejiche
0.50

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.35
AS Rejiche
1.67

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
AS Rejiche+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

AS Rejiche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
92%
ES Zarzis or AS Rejiche
80%
Draw or AS Rejiche
28%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
45%
AS Rejiche wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
84%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
55%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
28%
AS Rejiche 1+ goals
34%
AS Rejiche 2+ goals
7%
AS Rejiche 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
90%
AS Rejiche (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

AS Rejiche away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + AS Rejiche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

AS Rejiche attack 0.50 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
72%
level
20%
AS Rejiche scores more
8%

ES Zarzis at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Zarzis vs AS Rejiche

ES Zarzis beat AS Rejiche 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz in Zarzis.